Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ec36bb8d1d4c54973d1737677b977a0c719e3caccefbc75ecb8d156a7d2c30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 25c | 6,478$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.61 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 9c | 3,192$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.54 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…55b0backed No | 74c | 3,000$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 1,705$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.1 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 1,506$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb65…309bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,159$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 1,096$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 26c | 928.58$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 27c | 800.34$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…1141backed Yes | 28c | 751.77$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…8678backed Yes | 40c | 603.5$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 27c | 490$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 435.48$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 62c | 423.85$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20dc…201dbacked No | 79c | 379.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 24c | 352.55$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +526.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 305$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 292.62$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.86 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 247.41$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Yes | 27c | 202.26$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 175.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 175$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed No | 62c | 174.95$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.58 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 70c | 153.35$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 146.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908c…f68bbacked No | 73c | 145.1$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 143.52$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 139.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 78c | 133$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf656…782abacked Yes | 39c | 129.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 129.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 37c | 125.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 120.58$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 116.69$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 66c | 108.91$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 66c | 103.29$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 70c | 101.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 33c | 100.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 75c | 94.67$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 94.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 68c | 88.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 76c | 86$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcb…3103backed No | 66c | 79.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Yes | 35c | 75.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 75.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…496bbacked No | 67c | 71.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30de…10eabacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 63c | 69.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 70c | 66.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 23c | 64.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…eec3backed No | 71c | 62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked No | 65c | 61.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 25c | 59.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 27c | 58.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…9d72backed No | 75c | 57.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 57.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 26c | 56.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed Yes | 26c | 51.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3191…a06cbacked No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 48.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b25…c15abacked Yes | 26c | 48.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 48.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 66c | 48.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 66c | 45.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 69c | 44.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 43.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…02eabacked Yes | 34c | 43.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b2…5916backed No | 74c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…4db0backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…0334backed Yes | 26c | 38.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 36.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 32c | 35.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 78c | 35.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 75c | 31.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked No | 54c | 31.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +279.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 30.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…f9d7backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cc…ad05backed No | 78c | 26.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1518…282dbacked No | 74c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 70c | 25.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 66c | 22.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 48cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61d9…ab59backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 76c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?this page
- Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?Yes won
- Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.