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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$340,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$366,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,416 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed No28c31,166$8,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,751.3217352.6%91 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes75c26,013$19,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,468.796445.3%29 W · 35 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+24.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No23c10,177$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.633240.6%13 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No34c9,663$3,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,259.37175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-91.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f1…d87bbacked Yes75c7,845$5,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.311060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No8c7,064$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.12825%2 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No23c6,102$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.6116325.8%42 W · 121 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No18c5,983$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.594845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes77c5,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1601861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+83.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No16c4,754$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.836847.1%32 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes77c4,387$3,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.8215856.3%89 W · 69 L+20.1wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+18.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No30c4,168$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.75211.5%6 W · 46 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed No31c4,006$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,259.981421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-70.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No21c3,645$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.275038%19 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes72c3,461$2,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.451163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa43d…00f4backed Yes73c3,333$2,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.483751.4%19 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Yes76c2,947$2,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.712744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe32b…626ebacked No23c2,901$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.952425%6 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-21.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No9c2,890$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.11040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee8a…4fb2backed Yes80c2,669$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.93580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No1c2,301$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-80.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No23c2,287$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.981631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes78c2,142$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.663100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes74c2,095$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.515735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No36c2,025$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.5236834.2%126 W · 242 L-1.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes62c2,000$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7531747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked No1c1,986$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.98190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes75c1,934$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.115646.4%26 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No24c1,843$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.9820939.2%82 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa466…1c77backed No35c1,815$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes13c1,800$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,557.4225536.5%93 W · 162 L+19.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+69.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed Yes78c1,758$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.52119%4 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6f…dfb9backed Yes78c1,750$1,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No11c1,636$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.765129.4%15 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes71c1,625$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.183138.7%12 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+76%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes76c1,583$1,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.893537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes73c1,505$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.46043.3%26 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7355145.1%23 W · 28 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No23c1,474$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.759748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No22c1,405$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.9616634.3%57 W · 109 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes70c1,399$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick44cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.576100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No11c1,315$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.825844.8%26 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No18c1,314$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.3611839%46 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No22c1,247$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.776536.9%24 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No27c1,206$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.756139.3%24 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes71c1,163$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.072040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes75c1,161$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.616913%9 W · 60 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No12c1,141$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.112238.5%47 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x704c…19afbacked Yes71c1,130$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No24c1,115$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.9717132.2%55 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No23c1,087$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2481833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…821fbacked Yes78c1,051$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed No26c1,020$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.374831.3%15 W · 33 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e26…2020backed No27c1,019$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.531258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick29cpaid+115.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No29c986$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.7212723.6%30 W · 97 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No18c979.27$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8111250%56 W · 56 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2282…73e8backed No21c959.99$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.641241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked Yes75c927.64$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes73c909$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.6810762.6%67 W · 40 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No26c873.39$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.126546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb9…2b63backed Yes76c869.43$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.533060%18 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes72c866$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.43837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No20c840.71$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.167338.4%28 W · 45 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes79c839.49$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.513250%16 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c824.99$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.9135434.7%123 W · 231 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked No51c819$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.763740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed No23c796.05$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.1229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-88%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed No18c758.78$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.0380%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c709.7$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.254825%12 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-56.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdaad…69ccbacked No45c708$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes22c704.99$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.968350.6%42 W · 41 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c6…7d80backed Yes80c694.02$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.522268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+17.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No35c685$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.752857.1%16 W · 12 L+9.3wins+0.33per pick24cpaid+132.3%equal weight69+0.18 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No22c671.9$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.716546.2%30 W · 35 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No38c668$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25112623.8%30 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes56c663.54$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.325132.7%82 W · 169 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No22c644.89$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.26640.9%27 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes76c637.13$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.948333.7%28 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No19c621.67$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.696839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa0…152abacked Yes77c605.28$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No29c570.83$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.116339.7%25 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No29c566.16$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.146241.9%26 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8373…f0bcbacked No23c556$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.45137.3%19 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No16c537.3$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.854312%65 W · 478 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No30c534.3$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.1237822.2%84 W · 294 L-28.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked No30c531.6$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.16156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-91%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No22c522.98$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.846645.5%30 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed No18c514.29$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.737020%14 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No22c506.19$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.466544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No27c506.09$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8918842%79 W · 109 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No23c502.84$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8511224.1%27 W · 85 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes74c500$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d65…3781backed No24c499.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204641.3%19 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes73c499.99$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.46747.8%32 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes70c481$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.66955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802c…02f3backed Yes77c475.25$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacfa…0298backed Yes80c470.66$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.183100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf693…b473backed Yes79c454.99$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.993100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes52c448.41$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.744639.1%18 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.