Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Amish Shah be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9338c02162e3cd9c9ce31660b289f28d0a16a3105abf1653cbc8c0e3f182b666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,735
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes | 79c | 1,853$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 74c | 1,653$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.91 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 28c | 1,413$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.61 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…ed31backed No | 26c | 1,255$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 72c | 1,013$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.09 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…983ebacked No | 34c | 896$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 799.99$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 26c | 778.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.27 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 21c | 642.92$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 71c | 590.03$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.47 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 559.86$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.3 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked No | 29c | 541.9$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.53 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 30c | 487.89$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…89bdbacked Yes | 73c | 480.73$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 27c | 454.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 30c | 400$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +10.8wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…746dbacked Yes | 75c | 397.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 390$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625b…3a3ebacked Yes | 77c | 389.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 70c | 387$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 24c | 339.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…b31dbacked Yes | 75c | 317.42$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 299.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 260.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 29c | 254.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 32c | 252.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.3 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 33c | 226.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 66c | 163.57$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 29c | 155$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 72c | 155$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.88 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 74c | 137.56$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 121.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 26c | 118.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 69c | 116.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 68c | 97.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…e73dbacked Yes | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 32c | 89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 32c | 85.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 27c | 85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…4ad4backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 70c | 69.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 28c | 67.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 28c | 65.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 30c | 59.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…13b3backed No | 31c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 73c | 56.52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked No | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…b4a7backed Yes | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 50.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…7fd8backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb291…4937backed No | 51c | 48.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 73c | 43.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 43.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…65e4backed Yes | 71c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…15e5backed Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…8607backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 73c | 32.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…1586backed Yes | 70c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 70c | 30.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 39c | 28.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…cf8ebacked Yes | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc728…da4bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 72c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…3b18backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf12…d3a4backed Yes | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +128.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amish Shah be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Jonathan Treble be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Marlene Galán-Woods be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Rick McCartney be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.