Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Marlene Galán-Woods be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d153be6cd9237285cb1aa0d64e75d8c2a88768871308f8638d60b6b5b05b155
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,487
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,487 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 20c | 2,536$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.77 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 78c | 1,409$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.77 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 1,370$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.22 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes | 28c | 950$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 22c | 732.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 559.86$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.59 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 79c | 388.12$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 34c | 285.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 254.03$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…37d4backed Yes | 25c | 195.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Yes | 15c | 149.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 149.16$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 148.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed No | 73c | 136.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 125$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc262…6587backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 19c | 114$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 114$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 106.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 27c | 101.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked Yes | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 26c | 78.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 58.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d56…9081backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 43.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 41.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…812abacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 28.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 80c | 14.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 71c | 14.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marlene Galán-Woods be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Amish Shah be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?Yes won
- Will Jonathan Treble be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?No won
- Will Rick McCartney be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.