Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0b0b24bf0ec24b0b2ddde8363ea06a70a4037644f089c195989f18610999f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 68c | 10,639$7,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,405.42 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed No | 31c | 8,697$2,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,724.68 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 74c | 3,776$2,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.91 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed No | 36c | 2,150$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.76 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 20c | 1,309$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.83 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed No | 11c | 1,245$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 24c | 832.5$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 70c | 756.21$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.8 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fd…1a80backed No | 19c | 723.46$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 632.08$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…d1fdbacked Yes | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 566.27$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.29 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 73c | 534.83$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.56 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 17c | 506$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 79c | 491.78$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 435.05$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.91 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed No | 13c | 430.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 10c | 378.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 378.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 18c | 369.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 29c | 339$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 29c | 310$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.35 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed No | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 12c | 258.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 10c | 255.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 252.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 17c | 244.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb9…2b63backed No | 36c | 167.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 33c | 156.38$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 136.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 123.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 14c | 122.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 18c | 118$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 75c | 117.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 34c | 117.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 20c | 111.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 105.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 19c | 101.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 29c | 98.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 29c | 95.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 17c | 92.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…f4eabacked No | 36c | 89.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 16c | 89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 30c | 87.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed No | 32c | 87.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 18c | 80.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 78.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 22c | 75.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 74.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 25c | 73.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af8…9188backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 57.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…bdeebacked No | 20c | 56.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 37c | 50.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…7014backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 32c | 44.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…610cbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…b434backed No | 36c | 30.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Robin Peguero be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.