Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d06a35a368aca3095117609549ea3695586d40b7e97d22b11ca7c24e232c374
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 7c | 6,055$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.74 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,940$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.84 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 7c | 1,172$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.15 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes | 10c | 848.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ec…b7a9backed Yes | 18c | 765.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 8c | 579.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 14c | 552.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 7c | 545$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 6c | 540.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 7c | 412.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 7c | 394.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 13c | 275.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 4c | 241.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 15c | 232.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2925…d61dbacked Yes | 21c | 210.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 12c | 190.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 8c | 179.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040a…118dbacked Yes | 7c | 169.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…f8c9backed Yes | 10c | 112.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd6…2784backed Yes | 10c | 107.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 18c | 104.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Greg Stanton be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.