Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Greg Stanton be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ea28c041c54c895b6e6f428806fcb998965420bb65458ea434d0458a78550f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 7c | 7,068$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.78 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 2,434$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.95 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked No | 18c | 1,937$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed No | 7c | 1,298$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.91 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 7c | 1,191$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 7c | 1,157$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 875.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 6c | 728.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 6c | 721.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 8c | 651.49$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 20c | 649.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked No | 9c | 594.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 20c | 573$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 499.22$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 437.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 9c | 325$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 15c | 277.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 6c | 258$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 12c | 249.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 7c | 239.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked No | 21c | 238.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 6c | 192.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 10c | 175.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 7c | 144.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 16c | 101.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 17c | 83.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed No | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 73.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 68.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…d389backed No | 20c | 51.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Greg Stanton be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Kai Newkirk be the AZ-04 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.