Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5762b07c34cd8b8615e4f406d9e69874c26e03d0d30aed29766e278b2b80b914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 49c | 5,250$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.53 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 60c | 3,592$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.82 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 51c | 3,559$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.69 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 29c | 2,409$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.35 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 74c | 2,272$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.63 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 1,374$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.21 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb846…ad0fbacked Yes | 38c | 1,076$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +160.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 31c | 1,060$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 50c | 1,005$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.41 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 60c | 869.31$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.96 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 445.38$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.77 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 78c | 437$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 37c | 430$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.1 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 49c | 428.11$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 77c | 420.4$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.34 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 381.97$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.28 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…4a1dbacked Yes | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 22c | 372$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 25c | 356$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.22 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 338.88$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.16 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 64c | 329.15$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.66 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 31c | 293.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.18 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 60c | 285$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.94 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 38c | 273.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.81 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 27c | 265.57$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 262.21$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.13 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 51c | 259.69$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 66c | 250$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 243.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 242.43$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 27c | 229.81$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 75c | 213.19$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 26c | 210.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 50c | 199.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.34 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 69c | 199.7$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 77c | 194.4$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 177.3$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 62c | 175.03$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 175$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 78c | 173.21$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 61c | 172.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 171$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 29c | 160.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7428…1d56backed No | 76c | 160$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 143$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 68c | 134.38$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.59 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 29c | 131.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 128.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 29c | 126.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 35c | 123.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 48c | 122.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 122$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 25c | 121.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 118.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 116.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 26c | 112.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 31c | 112.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 104$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 103.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.61 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 96.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 41c | 95.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 22c | 92.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 24c | 91.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 15c | 88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed Yes | 32c | 86.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 77c | 80$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked Yes | 43c | 71.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 28c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 58c | 68.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 24c | 65.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 43c | 65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 25c | 62.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05c…d8fcbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +266.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…5614backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de0…7f22backed Yes | 51c | 59.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a82…abeabacked Yes | 38c | 57.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3efa…2667backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…6243backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 70c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…8147backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.