Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280a469e638f02118890193a7e75f804ddc1e485ba6236f6bab7e0266ed0333c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed Yes | 29c | 4,826$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 46c | 3,484$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,619.01 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 52c | 2,207$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.8 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 26c | 1,873$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.04 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 67c | 1,707$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.01 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 39c | 730.53$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.65 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 44c | 692.84$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.65 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 612$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.12 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 69c | 539.25$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.71 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 60c | 513$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.49 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 69c | 458.31$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.32 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 28c | 405$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.72 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 381$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked No | 33c | 376.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.67 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 59c | 369.4$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.06 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 366.28$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.34 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 356$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 35c | 347.5$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 344.4$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.06 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 308.04$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 32c | 278$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.18 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8a…f6a4backed Yes | 60c | 239.5$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 72c | 219.97$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 73c | 210.24$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.51 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 69c | 207$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.27 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 198.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.06 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 32c | 197$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 193.71$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 182.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.55 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 35c | 168$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 61c | 159.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 66c | 152.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 149.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 38c | 149.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf44…74d8backed Yes | 58c | 145.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 140.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 129.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa68b…c4b4backed No | 28c | 125$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +253.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 120.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 70c | 119$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 116.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 54c | 113.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 110.89$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 109.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 35c | 106.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 100.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…14bebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 96.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Yes | 50c | 95.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 56c | 91.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 87$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 32c | 85.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…280ebacked Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 77.03$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8914…a8a6backed No | 44c | 77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 50c | 76.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 74c | 72.68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 74c | 65.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 55c | 64.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…77a4backed No | 44c | 64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…9d72backed No | 75c | 61.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 50.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb451…467bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb0…e391backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…ddc3backed No | 35c | 49.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…d082backed Yes | 57c | 47.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 46.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 43c | 45.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 37c | 44.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…2646backed No | 37c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Yes | 29c | 40.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…5614backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf15…91c5backed No | 44c | 34.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…cca1backed No | 44c | 32.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 32c | 32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd722…3a58backed Yes | 57c | 30.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 29.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 29.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e25…afd6backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…25a7backed Yes | 68c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Mike Beltran be the FL-14 Republican nominee?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.