MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b1f15874bc7934f1a3516007e947ab043bafafd5c082ecd881370b63723f81f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 5,571$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 3,069$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 3,020$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 2,278$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 2,259$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.4 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 2,160$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 1,312$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.2 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 1,042$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.79 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,027$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Francisco Giants | 78c | 675$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 455.41$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 454.75$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.35 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 423.48$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.19 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 406.6$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 397$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.72 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 396.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 348.85$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.24 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d1…da98backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 229.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 211.71$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.92 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 199.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 189.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.85 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 178.52$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 66c | 151.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 124.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 124.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 122.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 117.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 112.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 112$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 101$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 12c | 96.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 88$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 59.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 49.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 48.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 46.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 37.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 35.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 34.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123e…eed4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 20.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.