MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd49deb275fd0804352489e14d220b7ee155e0377e9d7d39c3d71b6b6abd776b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 54c | 50,000$27,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,999.98 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 32,870$15,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,156.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0f…4790backed Over | 46c | 9,618$4,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,424.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 3,463$1,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.22 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 45c | 2,810$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.55 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 2,000$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 55c | 1,831$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.63 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 54c | 1,700$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.99 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 54c | 1,279$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.34 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,012$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.52 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 991.96$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.18 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 800.01$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…dbbbbacked Under | 53c | 788.33$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.52 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 761$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.06 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 545$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 54c | 450$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.93 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 46c | 301.96$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 294.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.98 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 46c | 267.23$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 232.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 45c | 179.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.57 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Over | 46c | 164$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…2dd8backed Under | 55c | 156.35$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.36 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 52c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…e8c9backed Under | 54c | 120.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 349 | 42.7%149 W · 200 L | -19.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 46c | 107.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Over | 46c | 102.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 46c | 93.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…e7aabacked Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 45c | 74.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Over | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 47.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 53c | 44.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Over | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 54c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…36fabacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…25b2backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…2dadbacked Under | 55c | 18.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.