MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db13767ca4ea8ec557dfa521a22796dcd2c35b6f2dd51611da4c68c83c793d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 8,068$3,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,630.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 7,342$4,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,159.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 39c | 768.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 56c | 695.65$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.03 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 594$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.88 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 43c | 412$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.16 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 370.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3516…45e5backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 62c | 195.01$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 26c | 171.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Over | 73c | 150.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 38c | 129.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Over | 42c | 113.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 51c | 105.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 26c | 83.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…f4f7backed Over | 62c | 78.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 27c | 74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 26c | 72.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 24c | 66.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 73c | 62.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce1…7572backed Under | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 68c | 46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 45c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Over | 44c | 34.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Over | 44c | 33.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 43c | 26.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Over | 40c | 25.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 310 | 46.5%144 W · 166 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 52c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 70c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 69c | 15.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.