MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8d82a0846cc5fc12a5bae6c0e40734a49d92c172a1be4abf5e5c4d935d5e12e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Over | 52c | 25,029$12,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,948.01 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 16,898$8,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,726.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 5,551$2,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,831.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 2,148$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,780$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.87 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 44c | 830.66$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.46 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 46c | 652.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 54c | 635.81$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.47 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 18c | 525$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.1 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7d…c130backed Over | 19c | 494.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 47c | 485.51$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.7 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 460.4$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 346.48$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.23 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Over | 46c | 312.47$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 36c | 213.29$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 164.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 43c | 149.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Over | 53c | 133.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Over | 57c | 97.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 45c | 78.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 50c | 56.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…7ab0backed Under | 55c | 54.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 47c | 48.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 41.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4840…2473backed Over | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b9…01bdbacked Over | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 54c | 23.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.