World Politics · resolved market
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f66dac01c41a6c267349591e6c356b965d7671008e428cd0167ce926dddaff1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 33c | 2,140$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…fbeabacked Yes | 65c | 1,883$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.78 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed Yes | 74c | 853.43$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.71 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 39c | 707$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.05 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 27c | 627.47$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.63 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 370.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.91 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 74c | 362$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes | 53c | 283$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…d259backed Yes | 76c | 268.02$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 80c | 256.37$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 69c | 215.59$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 62c | 208$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 203.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 168.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 70c | 155$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 152.16$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 140.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.67 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 23c | 128.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.21 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 63c | 120.01$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 71c | 120$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 31c | 102.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 72c | 102$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 75c | 99.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 45c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…21c2backed No | 18c | 95.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +465.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 80c | 79.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.42 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked No | 21c | 72.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…0a38backed Yes | 70c | 70.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…af1dbacked Yes | 70c | 66.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 23c | 65.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.36 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…1d63backed Yes | 70c | 63.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…e3c8backed No | 24c | 62.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +310.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 33c | 61.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 76c | 59.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 77c | 53.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…805abacked Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 76c | 35.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 62c | 33.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 63c | 33.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 32c | 33.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…5260backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaab…b2fcbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaff…e3adbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa425…1d81backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40c…5577backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 15.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?this page
- Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?Yes won
- Will Jorg Shelton-Eckstein win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?No won
- Will Mel Sullivan win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.