World Politics · resolved market
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dd529de90ad1bdfe38bc9106eb424696dfc715b86906763f921c0810013389e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,625$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,903.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes | 23c | 1,336$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8f…4dc1backed No | 74c | 853.55$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 21c | 567.94$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.67 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0414…be21backed No | 74c | 493.48$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.13 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf5…21c2backed Yes | 17c | 406.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +465.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 76c | 399.99$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.99 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 370.24$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.4 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 77c | 328.78$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.3 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 70c | 311.6$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.12 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd7…4c73backed Yes | 25c | 282.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 26c | 246.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 76c | 243$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.33 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…0b72backed No | 8c | 225$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 20c | 223$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 61c | 210$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 74c | 201.84$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.33 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6464…99adbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 24c | 196.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.72 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 14c | 192.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.22 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 41c | 186.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 125$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 61c | 121.83$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 70c | 121.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 32c | 116.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 102.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 26c | 102$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab2…676ebacked No | 79c | 101$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 76.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 76.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed No | 38c | 70.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…b526backed No | 69c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a56…0044backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d295backed No | 79c | 49.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 27c | 48.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 58c | 39.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 38.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 79c | 36.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…1cbebacked Yes | 78c | 21.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 73c | 20.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9b…80dcbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2390…d010backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…bff4backed No | 79c | 16.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 76cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf736…a4a8backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?this page
- Will Jorg Shelton-Eckstein win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?No won
- Will Mel Sullivan win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?No won
- Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.