Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8beae7622a3a657b92af1728320b928e5565d420e3de90b51c98459b1ac85c94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,176
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,176 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 79c | 8,536$6,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,765.52 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 73c | 6,962$5,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.82 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 22c | 4,634$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.41 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 20c | 2,732$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.32 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 74c | 2,356$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.36 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 8c | 1,914$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.92 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…e2d8backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 20c | 1,425$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.34 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 1,267$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.74 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 1,100$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 26c | 806.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.26 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 20c | 769$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 720.89$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.72 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 77c | 702.83$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.11 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 28c | 702.19$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.34 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed No | 29c | 688.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 23c | 682.77$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.74 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 61c | 669$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.54 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 591.92$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.66 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…b9e7backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 76c | 499.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 21c | 466.35$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…f788backed No | 12c | 454.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 25c | 453$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.33 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 66c | 373$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 39c | 350$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 27c | 336.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked No | 26c | 300$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 17c | 299.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 25c | 280$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.07 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8469…dab0backed No | 44c | 279.63$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 12c | 259.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked No | 20c | 247.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 231.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 22c | 215$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 61c | 198.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.2 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 14c | 192.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 19c | 186.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 20c | 178.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 75c | 165.46$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 73c | 164.38$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 79c | 156.78$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 78c | 144.42$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…5483backed Yes | 79c | 139.52$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5b…babfbacked Yes | 75c | 133.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 16c | 131.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 130$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 64c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 17c | 119.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 111.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 21c | 104.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 75c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 26c | 96.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 21c | 96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 92.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 17c | 87.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 25c | 86.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 86.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 25c | 85.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 80.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 18c | 79.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +80%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…b4a7backed Yes | 71c | 74.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…96dbbacked No | 28c | 72.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…ec2cbacked No | 26c | 63.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 43c | 57.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 75c | 57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 46.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 64c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 78c | 42.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 37c | 42.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…b4aabacked No | 41c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5705…4652backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed96…d6edbacked Yes | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Callie Barr be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?this page
- Will Kyle Blomquist be the MI-01 Democratic nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.