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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Charlie Hatcher be the TN-05 Republican nominee?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$52,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes21c12,468$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,826.428348.2%40 W · 43 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes52c6,188$3,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.2115655.8%87 W · 69 L+19.1wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+14.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No75c4,810$3,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,603.7611248.2%54 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No67c3,668$2,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,445.235121.6%11 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No78c3,642$2,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.1416431.7%52 W · 112 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed No74c3,602$2,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,676.887350.7%37 W · 36 L+5.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes24c3,549$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,706.4536033.3%120 W · 240 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes12c1,414$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.3315845.6%72 W · 86 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No60c1,236$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.8211437.7%43 W · 71 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes27c1,211$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.623863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes57c1,196$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.4616651.2%85 W · 81 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes31c1,100$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.73360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+23%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No73c923.83$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.868353%44 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c794$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.814143.3%61 W · 80 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes18c763$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.6113444.8%60 W · 74 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes27c683.98$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.6917930.7%55 W · 124 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes42c630.09$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.3825135.9%90 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+68.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes21c602.47$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.6118341%75 W · 108 L-0.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No76c601.94$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.122326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe9e…6944backed Yes28c537.97$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.975141.2%21 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes20c489.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.2219024.7%47 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes27c471.69$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.6136822%81 W · 287 L-27.9wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-34.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No74c447.48$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.035846.6%27 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0d…fa97backed Yes25c416.22$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.51435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes19c400$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.8321031%65 W · 145 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes18c399.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.99955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes28c394.07$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.732147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No68c393.25$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.864443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes26c384.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.612650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No38c375.28$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.216036.7%22 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes36c363.58$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.866341.3%26 W · 37 L+6.3wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c362.97$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.0613847.1%65 W · 73 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No51c358.5$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.775846.6%27 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes25c348.8$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.289457.4%54 W · 40 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+12.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Yes24c346.92$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.23633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No60c345.91$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.195839.7%23 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No78c342.01$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.8812949.6%64 W · 65 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes21c325.41$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.592564%16 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+32.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabb9…2b63backed Yes25c318.12$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.722864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+37.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No76c309.7$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.919247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes70c275.75$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.757150.7%36 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No78c270.11$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.712748.8%62 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes24c261.46$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.3223948.5%116 W · 123 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No72c236.67$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.847829.5%23 W · 55 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c222.47$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.1112548%60 W · 65 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f21…ff5dbacked Yes34c198.87$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No78c194.28$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.488252.4%43 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No61c193.02$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.355743.9%25 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No67c190.69$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.255740.4%23 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No77c187.47$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.335955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No79c174$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.918835.2%31 W · 57 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No67c169.04$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.686137.7%23 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No70c164$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.365450%27 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+50.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No74c150$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1113528.6%10 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x840e…b9edbacked Yes23c150$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eec…e587backed Yes26c143.84$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.453056.7%17 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+58.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No68c140.25$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.175642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed Yes13c130$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.15754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No40c128.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.775541.8%23 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x290a…0994backed Yes21c125.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.98580%4 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick28cpaid+205.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No60c121.48$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.926636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No77c115.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.85345.3%24 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes20c114.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.96346%29 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes21c111$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.1552911.7%62 W · 467 L-17.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes24c104.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6735740.1%143 W · 214 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No45c103.5$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.276045%27 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020139.3%79 W · 122 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4e…7c1abacked Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6118…d31dbacked Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652520%5 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804045%18 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644528.9%13 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x256c…693bbacked Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x236e…fe7fbacked Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No46c99.41$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.065637.5%21 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Yes21c93.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.072450%12 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes23c93.05$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.112042.5%51 W · 69 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f71…719abacked Yes35c85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.251747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d2a…7682backed Yes21c84.27$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.57850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc262…6587backed Yes25c80$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes22c78.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5616145.3%73 W · 88 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No74c78.42$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0312322.8%28 W · 95 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e8…2276backed Yes16c74.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick30cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e77…d01bbacked Yes20c72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No74c71.47$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7210949.5%54 W · 55 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc83…37efbacked No79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes17c67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.614845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No76c66.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.671154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed No73c63$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9910541%43 W · 62 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f0…610cbacked Yes30c62.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.481675%12 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+55.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No79c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.45438.9%21 W · 33 L-6.4wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf9a…5576backed Yes26c57.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No78c56.73$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4310143.6%44 W · 57 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No74c55.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.774654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+27%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes23c53.95$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.685641.1%23 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+61.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36dd…bfccbacked Yes25c53.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.911770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+66.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No45c52$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.346048.3%29 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34db…2e01backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51650%8 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb451…467bbacked No79c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.