TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Andy Ogles be the TN-05 Republican nominee?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,685 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdd5d…1614backed Yes76c8,041$6,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,094.747448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed No17c5,485$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,552.637749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa2dc…49f9backed Yes74c5,274$3,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,905.591172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes42c4,682$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,979.6734333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No23c4,263$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,279.3114729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No35c2,472$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.356141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed Yes75c1,619$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.532842.9%12 W · 16 L-6.0wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-35.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x378a…114bbacked Yes61c1,498$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No25c1,301$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.467352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No39c1,242$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.39035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No21c1,227$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.2418026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No20c1,223$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.892123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No21c1,105$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.6113625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0d…fa97backed No26c1,077$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.431145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes78c1,069$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8373661.1%22 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No17c1,019$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.824723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes75c1,014$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.36152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes6c1,013$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.75540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No25c994$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.6113143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x751a…746dbacked Yes74c986.48$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes79c855.01$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.362832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf44…74d8backed Yes76c850$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6461154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No46c745.87$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.8214356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd77c…9095backed No35c700$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+181.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes73c688.44$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.2718041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b25…7a69backed Yes76c633$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.485141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed No28c571.94$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.741747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No28c563.73$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.583345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No52c560.65$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.984949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed Yes79c508.59$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.786311.1%7 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-71.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes80c500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40031534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36dd…bfccbacked No20c475.62$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.681471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+80.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No30c455.34$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.369647.9%46 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No22c451.27$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.079343%40 W · 53 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No47c422.39$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.3913647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No72c415.27$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.328332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No37c406.4$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.642759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No21c404.55$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.8710245.1%46 W · 56 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ae0…7483backed No37c390.47$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.01922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No26c387.93$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.9916833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked No26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.626030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No30c375.76$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2626036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No27c344.89$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5912545.6%57 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes11c335.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9522833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes77c324$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.926636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x299c…7e23backed No23c288.74$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.331338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes76c285$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.257326%19 W · 54 L-10.6wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xc262…6587backed Yes75c267.83$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.87757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb5…9d52backed Yes75c266.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No35c256.75$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.885135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes72c254.95$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.1922948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No22c252$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.6410946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes79c242.56$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No40c232.83$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.154940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No25c229.26$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.3324831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No23c217.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4215431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No26c212.55$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.25244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked No34c210.26$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.73943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6aa…178ebacked No20c206.61$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.291450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+38.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No21c204.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4512049.2%59 W · 61 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f5…edd9backed Yes74c202.47$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1464143.9%18 W · 23 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1523751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No20c200$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1593132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No19c190.22$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.854346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No23c186.69$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.14850%24 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ef…6544backed Yes79c185.49$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No44c185.05$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.194847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No51c182.31$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.784942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No30c174$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.6645035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes70c160$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1128550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No25c158$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9312643.7%55 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc29…b3b6backed No19c150.53$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.931872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7afb…61eabacked Yes76c150$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes62c150$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9315445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6706…2341backed No20c150$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1202166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+45.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No29c149.3$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.724841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb9…2b63backed No20c147.4$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.922369.6%16 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No27c145.41$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.035139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6071…e933backed No26c141.48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.71758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.20per pick39cpaid+58.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e62…64a7backed Yes75c140.39$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29da…7142backed Yes80c140$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf29d…add3backed Yes76c140$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes64c140$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904030%12 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No37c139.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.394729.8%14 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No23c135.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1133421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No53c134.13$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.85244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No24c132.67$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.838757.5%50 W · 37 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes67c130.63$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.764055%22 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No24c123.84$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.853452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No66c119.09$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.915137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes74c117.29$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.910722.4%24 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes66c115.11$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.223672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No49c112.39$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.564940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No26c108$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.148535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked No26c105.73$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.751154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024e…8fa1backed Yes79c101$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79fe…6286backed Yes80c100.62$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-68.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8218237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.