Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x995705f945b0ca47cafcb3ec89fead6d9a0f2d0a5f42fecff68fed619d25e86e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 77c | 6,441$4,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.63 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 65c | 2,602$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.69 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 18c | 1,600$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.77 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 31c | 1,584$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.57 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 24c | 1,494$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.78 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 22c | 1,033$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.66 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 23c | 1,025$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.43 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 70c | 975.24$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.68 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 647.63$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc548…9439backed No | 45c | 559.91$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 558.7$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 440.68$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 28c | 426.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 24c | 397$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.89 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 25c | 384.17$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 24c | 364.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 17c | 341.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked Yes | 64c | 317.39$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 16c | 312.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808a…ef3fbacked Yes | 54c | 297$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.24 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 49c | 290$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 107 | 22.4%24 W · 83 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…0456backed No | 43c | 271.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 54c | 235.01$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 58c | 222.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 18c | 211.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 12c | 208.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 52c | 205$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 36c | 202.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 24c | 190.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 181.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 14c | 178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 17c | 176.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 24c | 171.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 18c | 163.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 68c | 136.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 22c | 135$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 131.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 11c | 119$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 104.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 52c | 101.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 96.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 31c | 93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 34c | 86.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 14c | 77.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked No | 32c | 75.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 32c | 69.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 72c | 69.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 69c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7b…332dbacked No | 47c | 64.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 56c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 24c | 46.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 57c | 45.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed No | 29c | 44.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…aa50backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce8d…28dbbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ce…41d9backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83f4…c2a8backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc833…eec3backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 73c | 39.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 38c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a82…abeabacked Yes | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4593…49cabacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 40c | 34.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…2646backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 58c | 29.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed No | 51c | 27.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 55c | 25.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed Yes | 56c | 23.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabb9…2b63backed Yes | 75c | 22.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…dc5ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ryan Elijah be the FL-07 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.