Us Midterms · resolved market
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef7feb067decb2706989f0564f6c283475f08f7496d1c8982a7c7e8555156ac0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 50c | 8,143$4,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,096.31 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 71c | 6,728$4,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,934.92 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 13c | 5,547$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.28 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 17c | 3,106$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.2 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 69c | 3,000$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.68 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 21c | 2,595$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.84 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 34c | 2,315$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.05 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 37c | 2,119$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.62 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 6c | 1,990$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.88 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 8c | 1,811$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,565$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.3 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 8c | 1,513$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed No | 7c | 1,422$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 48c | 1,278$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.96 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 12c | 1,141$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked No | 5c | 1,136$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 47c | 1,087$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.28 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…6944backed Yes | 21c | 1,070$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.7 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 73c | 875.48$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.16 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…73cfbacked No | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 18c | 774.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 31c | 741.43$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.9 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 70c | 571.18$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.28 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 19c | 550.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 28c | 528.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 172 | 40.7%70 W · 102 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 9c | 487$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 470.33$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.6 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 427.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 16c | 417.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 9c | 408.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 38c | 405.04$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 79c | 400$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.47 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 32c | 387$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.94 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 52c | 384.51$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 3c | 359.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 19c | 318.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 38c | 317$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.54 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 276$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 29c | 273.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 23c | 264.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.01 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 10c | 262$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 40c | 260$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Yes | 56c | 247$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…b4a7backed No | 47c | 233.23$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 43c | 232.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.25 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 75c | 230.59$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 55c | 223.66$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 35c | 207$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…b73fbacked No | 5c | 204$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 31c | 192.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 17c | 181.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 60c | 178$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 16c | 174.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.14 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…f3c8backed Yes | 37c | 172.44$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.64 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 76c | 172$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 171.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 49c | 164.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 38c | 161.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 56c | 155$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…e8e7backed Yes | 39c | 154.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…618bbacked No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 35c | 147.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 62c | 144.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…cd69backed Yes | 39c | 141.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.38per pick | 49cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 140$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 16c | 137.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 38c | 132.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.38 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 69c | 130.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 53c | 129.17$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.63 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 61c | 128.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98ac…40d9backed No | 56c | 119$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed Yes | 38c | 115$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 39c | 114.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…9411backed Yes | 77c | 111.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 62c | 109.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 66c | 109.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 41c | 107.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4420…ea24backed Yes | 20c | 104.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +403.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 21c | 102.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffb1…f54ebacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae8…5a42backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…37efbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 74c | 99.08$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4b…f574backed Yes | 59c | 98.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 32c | 96.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2925…d61dbacked Yes | 24c | 94.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32fd…5c8bbacked Yes | 63c | 92.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…1362backed No | 78c | 91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.98 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 87.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 68c | 84.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…ceecbacked No | 22c | 82.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 32c | 78.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…1011backed No | 45c | 74.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?this page
- Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?No won
- Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.