Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f9712ddd3ca1ca5a94539cd9b72212fa6365c566612fbd62b123985bceb854e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 6c | 5,036$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.01 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,915$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 10c | 1,821$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.23 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,719$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9b…a0ecbacked Yes | 3c | 1,423$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb003…97e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 2c | 702$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…cc69backed Yes | 6c | 613.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 7c | 524$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 78c | 499.73$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.94 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 473.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed Yes | 7c | 397.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 32c | 340.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 3c | 306.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 20c | 218.08$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 7c | 208$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 8c | 197.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 10c | 173$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 28c | 170.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 66c | 149$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 9c | 131.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 98.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 32c | 78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 21c | 63.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 31.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 80c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?this page
- Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?No won
- Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.