Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1afc22d19bf874d2dd8dd7fb82127fba429c11609ad61396918bc9004a9d0f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 0c | 14,010$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 2c | 7,778$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 1c | 6,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 7c | 5,919$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 16c | 5,860$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,932.65 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 35c | 5,845$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.18 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 39c | 5,275$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,218.19 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 50c | 4,114$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.16 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 3,000$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,792.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 9c | 2,153$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 2,032$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 1c | 2,015$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…9403backed No | 0c | 2,009$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 1,987$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 1,896$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.24 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…c562backed Yes | 16c | 1,400$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.99 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 24cpaid | +121.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…5d80backed No | 4c | 1,305$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 29c | 1,200$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.23 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 75c | 1,052$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.45 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04f5…71e9backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked Yes | 10c | 899.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.99 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 66c | 749.99$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.49 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 52c | 740.31$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.42 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 5c | 713.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 62c | 656.49$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 53c | 631.88$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.88 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…fbd0backed No | 44c | 570.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 78c | 508.58$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.55 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 488.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.23 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 80c | 400$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 36c | 395.44$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Yes | 11c | 390.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.73 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 34c | 382.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.35 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 50c | 380$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.4 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 13c | 354.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.66 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…6eb1backed No | 69c | 309.53$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…bbdcbacked No | 10c | 305.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 69c | 268.61$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.16 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 59c | 251.09$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 34c | 186$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 34c | 186$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 73c | 169.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 15c | 138$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 76c | 130.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 65c | 125$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…e5a7backed No | 13c | 118.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 21c | 110.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 65c | 90.76$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 74c | 79.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…6cacbacked Yes | 34c | 79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed Yes | 78c | 77.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 55c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed No | 15c | 68.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed No | 78c | 63.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x386c…8323backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -5.8wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 66c | 59.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…0ca3backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…f273backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fd…dae3backed Yes | 31c | 39.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 30c | 38.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed No | 75c | 26.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…7eadbacked Yes | 58c | 25.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 66c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x152e…9963backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 60c | 18.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.