TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,112 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f66…3a50backed No10c5,028$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52418246.2%84 W · 98 L-15.4wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes25c2,823$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,113.7617737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe2…8c49backed No74c2,638$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes69c2,400$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.7964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No2c2,148$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No3c2,071$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.652729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No2c2,063$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.719714.4%14 W · 83 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes55c1,365$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.5611038.2%42 W · 68 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No20c1,200$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.8342311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c1,064$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.81,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes56c1,060$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.9435921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69028734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No49c1,000$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83f1…1936backed Yes24c845.79$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.791346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+46.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes27c791$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.435954.2%32 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No52c791$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.3212432.3%40 W · 84 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked No54c784.13$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.73522.9%8 W · 27 L-7.5wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-51.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x97ea…3363backed Yes73c685.2$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.4911859.3%70 W · 48 L+14.5wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No74c500$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.534143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed No45c449.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.55950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No24c430.71$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4112223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No3c401.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.262217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes26c399.98$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.9820247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes56c387.65$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.357745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes48c314.58$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.228145.7%37 W · 44 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes28c290$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.815331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No75c287.16$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.3711851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82c9…36fcbacked No74c276$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.244332.6%14 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe958…66b7backed No79c250.84$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.032334.8%8 W · 15 L-5.4wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-24.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb477…673ebacked No59c228.81$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1352268.2%15 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c227$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9186542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No62c221.99$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.637038.6%27 W · 43 L-10.3wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-31%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x48ad…a73abacked Yes25c219$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…d3fdbacked Yes26c214$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.362536%9 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes53c205$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.811436%41 W · 73 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked Yes66c205$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.72236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed Yes28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1445527.3%15 W · 40 L-7.4wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x272c…7f07backed No34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689524.2%23 W · 72 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked No45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9014944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes25c199.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9917359.5%103 W · 70 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No39c195.13$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3485725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes50c186.01$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.253043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No23c182.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9824839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes55c180.44$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.538247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed Yes54c163.28$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.281656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes69c162.15$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8720749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54a7…881bbacked No52c142.58$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.145532.7%18 W · 37 L-16.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-53.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes26c135.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10036634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No52c130.69$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.966934.8%24 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed No78c128.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd0…67b0backed No78c127.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9965…7a82backed Yes45c118$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes22c115.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2336626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes23c111$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4744224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6683…f5f4backed Yes26c108$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.922065%13 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+21.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a2b…841dbacked Yes53c105$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.852100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+59.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x333d…e8b7backed No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5270%0 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-60%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked No52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+86.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.54544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7311037.3%41 W · 69 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe879…6d22backed No62c100$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626653%35 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9448…b72ebacked No51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5170%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed No72c99.52$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.659454.3%51 W · 43 L+12.6wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+52.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb23b…503fbacked Yes46c96.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.195345.3%24 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d8…a490backed Yes28c88.81$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.81475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+54.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes27c88.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.35966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No62c81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5218640.9%76 W · 110 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No20c80.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.572240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcec…d169backed Yes36c80$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.51855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd064…c4d1backed No61c79.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.696753.7%36 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9c…c182backed No27c77.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.943534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2db7…8f9bbacked No68c76.89$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.116339.7%25 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No52c72$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.44425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked No31c68.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.26839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb8…48f6backed No62c65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc250…4fafbacked Yes24c62.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.51070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+52.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7a4…8229backed No33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+49.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes33c58.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed Yes26c54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.964358.1%25 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x313e…8498backed No53c54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…543abacked No79c53.08$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.932548%12 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40d7…10b5backed Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.63560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+72.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.52326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes52c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.832642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x392a…262dbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e37…20bebacked Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0678…5e7abacked Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-63.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8d74…04e3backed Yes56c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1a4…527cbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235837.9%22 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Yes26c48.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.694168.3%28 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x386c…8323backed Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.444355.8%24 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+88.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x21f4…81a6backed No46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204425%11 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe2…380fbacked Yes26c43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+92.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed19…cb5ebacked No73c41$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.114055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.