Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x343018d6ea0266996557dfb5125de42d3d77dc2dc128bb65efaae78b8da0118e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 10c | 5,028$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 25c | 2,823$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,113.76 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 74c | 2,638$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 2,400$1,646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.79 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 2,148$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 3c | 2,071$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 2c | 2,063$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 55c | 1,365$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.56 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 20c | 1,200$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.83 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,064$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,060$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.94 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…1936backed Yes | 24c | 845.79$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 27c | 791$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.43 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 52c | 791$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.32 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 54c | 784.13$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.7 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 73c | 685.2$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.49 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 74c | 500$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.5 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 45c | 449.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 24c | 430.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 401.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 26c | 399.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.98 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 56c | 387.65$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.35 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 48c | 314.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.22 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 28c | 290$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.8 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 75c | 287.16$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.37 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…36fcbacked No | 74c | 276$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe958…66b7backed No | 79c | 250.84$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.03 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -5.4wins | -0.23per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 59c | 228.81$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 227$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.91 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 62c | 221.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -10.3wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48ad…a73abacked Yes | 25c | 219$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…d3fdbacked Yes | 26c | 214$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.36 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 53c | 205$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 66c | 205$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 95 | 24.2%23 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 173 | 59.5%103 W · 70 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 39c | 195.13$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 50c | 186.01$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 23c | 182.52$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 55c | 180.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 54c | 163.28$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 69c | 162.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 52c | 142.58$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 26c | 135.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 52c | 130.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 78c | 128.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed No | 78c | 127.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…7a82backed Yes | 45c | 118$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 22c | 115.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.23 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 23c | 111$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2b…841dbacked Yes | 53c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 72c | 99.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 46c | 96.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 28c | 88.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes | 27c | 88.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 62c | 81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 186 | 40.9%76 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 20c | 80.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcec…d169backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 61c | 79.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed No | 27c | 77.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…8f9bbacked No | 68c | 76.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 52c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 31c | 68.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb8…48f6backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…4fafbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a4…8229backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 58.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313e…8498backed No | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…543abacked No | 79c | 53.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…10b5backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…20bebacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…5e7abacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…04e3backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…527cbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 26c | 48.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386c…8323backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…380fbacked Yes | 26c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.