Middle East · resolved market
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63ad25d766e8769800f2fbd789c79fac66531cc1546a96026b919fd5e14c0549
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 1,807$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.32 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 24c | 1,684$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 1,200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 15c | 1,080$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.46 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 21c | 941.32$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.32 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…d40fbacked Yes | 52c | 928.41$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 58c | 899.5$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.52 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 80c | 861.3$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.64 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 62c | 822.25$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.27 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 51c | 399.99$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -7.5wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 17c | 294$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…6cacbacked No | 17c | 294$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 49c | 273.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.71 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 30c | 273.44$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7c…2efdbacked No | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 17c | 245$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 50c | 198.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 185.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 51c | 172.55$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 165.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes | 66c | 147.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…36fcbacked No | 38c | 137.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x386c…8323backed Yes | 47c | 128.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.23 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe879…6d22backed No | 18c | 122.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed No | 14c | 117.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 80c | 109$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 25c | 83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 50c | 78.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9c…c182backed Yes | 73c | 77.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 75c | 66.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed Yes | 80c | 61.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 22c | 61.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 57.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d48…678cbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…d1a1backed No | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 23c | 48.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 71c | 43.4$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed No | 39c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 39.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 69c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?this page
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 1?No won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Yes won
- Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.