Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb04b76ddc69f0b9638bcdaf97466299d3d3af809f39599560c3b812dccc1d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 50c | 2,010$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.74 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Yes | 49c | 1,019$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 2c | 548.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 47c | 494.59$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.74 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 51c | 316.14$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed No | 72c | 291.71$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe474…018dbacked Yes | 44c | 273$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 54c | 239.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 52c | 239$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 237.63$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…0049backed Yes | 28c | 206.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f13…f926backed Yes | 50c | 206.07$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 59c | 206$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 52c | 153$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…66e7backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed Yes | 10c | 142$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 137$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 53c | 130$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed Yes | 46c | 119.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 109.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc7…3ca3backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 49c | 103.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…9340backed Yes | 18c | 97.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked Yes | 50c | 89.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 48c | 86.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 47c | 78.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed No | 71c | 70.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…fa5dbacked Yes | 44c | 69.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 51c | 52.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 54c | 45.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…8496backed No | 69c | 39.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac7…85b4backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 53c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 57c | 28.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 44c | 27.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?this page
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.