Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5eb7654973a91874649d46749f4e42d419bec258bbe90bef5a2ee0c03fc1aa1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 57c | 1,344$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.35 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 40c | 740.68$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.57 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 76c | 515.77$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 43c | 512.02$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 30c | 398$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 17c | 333.02$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed Yes | 48c | 327.17$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.78 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a4…4187backed No | 21c | 304.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90cf…6cc2backed Yes | 67c | 297.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c5…61e1backed Yes | 54c | 218.79$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.59 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 74c | 209.94$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f13…f926backed Yes | 57c | 193.88$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…87d5backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 12c | 148.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 57c | 138$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 31c | 137.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.14 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 44c | 127$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes | 57c | 124.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1438…c697backed Yes | 65c | 123.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked Yes | 31c | 110.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +161.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 13c | 103.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 50c | 97.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…1326backed Yes | 43c | 97.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 34c | 96.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 30c | 96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 43c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 55c | 86.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked No | 42c | 68.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 62.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…6151backed Yes | 61c | 61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…21f5backed No | 45c | 53.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09e9…94d8backed No | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 35c | 46.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 58c | 44.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 44.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed9…8496backed No | 68c | 44.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 44.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 36c | 44.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8f…0734backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 43c | 35.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25d3…0e91backed No | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 50c | 31.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf718…b415backed No | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 56c | 25.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed Yes | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 74c | 21.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…9340backed Yes | 55c | 20.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed Yes | 58c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes | 55c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…58febacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…9638backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 59c | 17.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 78c | 14.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?this page
- Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.