Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda455cb37e869e4c8059ace1e8cb1b207be7c0ad2515ae6c2b098653f7dfde63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 55c | 10,487$5,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,763.56 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 29c | 7,458$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,331.18 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked No | 68c | 5,205$3,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.29 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 43c | 5,010$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 62c | 3,671$2,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.92 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 72c | 3,071$2,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.8 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,762$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 1,870$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.16 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 41c | 1,836$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.46 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 1,600$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 42c | 1,551$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.85 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked No | 24c | 1,480$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 18c | 1,359$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.23 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…8233backed No | 48c | 1,230$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +234.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 33c | 1,169$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae1…89bdbacked No | 55c | 821.05$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 74c | 800$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 60c | 709.43$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.99 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 33c | 636$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.78 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 75c | 633$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.75 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 31c | 548.03$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 51c | 449.99$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 425.42$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 29c | 400$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…337bbacked Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 360.63$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.72 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed No | 55c | 354.45$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.82 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 43c | 351.36$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 54c | 348.1$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.78 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 67c | 340.49$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 61c | 339$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.95 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked No | 66c | 337.49$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…1fbebacked Yes | 30c | 334.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 25c | 327.72$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.64 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 321.74$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 314.99$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 278.7$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.38 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 276.11$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815a…af37backed No | 30c | 247.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 77c | 219.8$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 68 | 26.5%18 W · 50 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 63c | 216.11$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.04 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…4404backed Yes | 75c | 215.86$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked Yes | 42c | 200.83$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 66c | 200.24$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.18 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…6609backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0f0bbacked Yes | 69c | 198.51$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 187.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 185.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.06 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked No | 22c | 180.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 173.22$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 53c | 165.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.37 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 30c | 163$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 54c | 160.36$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 58c | 160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 151.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 150.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed No | 68c | 145$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 25c | 138.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 136$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 43c | 134.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 42c | 121.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 56c | 121.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 120.01$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 33c | 110$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.76 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes | 30c | 101.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…2e01backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 34c | 95.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 42c | 92.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 86.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf458…f266backed Yes | 41c | 76.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d9…a4e5backed No | 72c | 73.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 45c | 69.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 60c | 67.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 27c | 66.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 66c | 66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 73c | 65.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 49c | 65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed No | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 66c | 62.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 56.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…e865backed Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed No | 52c | 51.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed No | 51c | 50.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No won
- Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?Yes won
- Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.