Us Midterms · resolved market
Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aa9155160308616b63c5f967e9f9567f0a4672522a14e27430e9731d8783ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 14c | 3,719$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.53 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,650$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 17c | 2,369$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.28 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 9c | 1,497$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 79c | 1,481$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.23 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 12c | 1,246$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 9c | 1,071$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.28 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 10c | 774$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 722.69$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 10c | 402.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 13c | 385.62$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 10c | 359.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 247.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 210.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 207.62$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 29c | 141.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 78c | 126.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 109.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 18c | 103.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 93.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 78c | 92.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…c31fbacked Yes | 25c | 87.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed Yes | 24c | 81.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 73.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 250 | 30.8%77 W · 173 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 59.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 77c | 58.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4d…44e5backed Yes | 20c | 58.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 76c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked No | 79c | 44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…d61ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700e…872ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf458…f266backed No | 69c | 32.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 75c | 30.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…6b9dbacked No | 79c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c8…3c02backed No | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No won
- Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?Yes won
- Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.