Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25d95a6b467a479723081632604b0d207fc4e1abc7f5cf3c2699682522411f21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 37c | 5,119$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,231.79 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 66c | 4,344$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.73 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 28c | 2,997$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,168.62 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 69c | 1,590$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.76 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 9c | 1,182$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.98 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 42c | 914.06$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.01 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 77c | 905.55$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.52 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 46c | 746.62$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.87 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 20c | 739.1$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed No | 67c | 699.95$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.97 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 636.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.22 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…8233backed Yes | 13c | 543.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +234.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 69c | 511.13$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 471.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.87 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.2 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 52c | 360.65$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.88 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…a674backed Yes | 43c | 350.76$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 25c | 350$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.15 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 348.61$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.45 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 314.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.3 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 64c | 297.85$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.24 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 272.44$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.76 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 250$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 58c | 242$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.41 | 196 | 31.1%61 W · 135 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb9…2b63backed Yes | 42c | 215.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed Yes | 10c | 214.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…e72fbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.09 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 176.72$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.7 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c1…f022backed Yes | 12c | 160.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.57 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +114%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 159.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 12c | 155.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 76c | 146.24$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 76c | 132$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6b27backed Yes | 29c | 124.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…1fbebacked Yes | 48c | 104.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…5dc1backed Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 96.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed Yes | 17c | 76.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…2341backed Yes | 42c | 66.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 72c | 64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | -10.6wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 42c | 62.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 60.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 24c | 54.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 25c | 50.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 72c | 46.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed No | 64c | 43.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 43.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 80c | 40.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked No | 60c | 39.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 39.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Yes | 40c | 32.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2167…5dedbacked No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 80c | 31.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 62c | 30.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…bb8bbacked Yes | 41c | 26.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 20.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No won
- Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No won
- Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.