Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x162b8f17f97398a40ccb5db82493d7b814a4c63559fe7f3f7af345c2a8932c4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,630
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,650$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 30c | 1,405$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.23 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 16c | 1,328$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.51 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 78c | 1,051$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.77 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…8233backed Yes | 14c | 864.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +234.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 77c | 843.88$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.8 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…209cbacked Yes | 36c | 662.52$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 27c | 400.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 341.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 12c | 340.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 30c | 318.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e85abacked Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 75c | 291.35$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 70c | 265.11$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.55 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f3e7backed No | 74c | 256.77$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 24c | 229.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 213$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 131 | 43.5%57 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 192.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 169.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed No | 76c | 169.13$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…c5e3backed Yes | 32c | 151$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 77c | 146.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 17c | 120.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 27c | 108.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…5dc1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +390.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 96.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 96.11$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 93.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 135 | 46.7%63 W · 72 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 77c | 88.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 79.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 73.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0640…5ea2backed Yes | 14c | 71.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…c078backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 23c | 66.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed Yes | 18c | 58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6b27backed Yes | 34c | 48.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked No | 70c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 38.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 35c | 36.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +65%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 32c | 34.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 30.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2444…bdd7backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked No | 72c | 24.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 20.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 18.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Belinda Keiser be the FL-22 Republican nominee?this page
- Will Casey Askar be the FL-22 Republican nominee?Yes won
- Will David Burck be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No won
- Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.