Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1383c0e04374e965b0961d1526a18d2a173f37c06ff835f2de056f604d052809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 467.9$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.1 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 44c | 228.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 15c | 192.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 189.63$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 45c | 189.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 44c | 125.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 107.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 55c | 92.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 91.25$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 87.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 75.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 71.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 61.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf23…3f54backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 59.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 46.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 40.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 49c | 38.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 50c | 36.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 35.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 55c | 34.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 44c | 34.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 50c | 33.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 31.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe453…30b7backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 28.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 50c | 27.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 26.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 45c | 26.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 60c | 24.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 60c | 24.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x868b…f600backed No | 61c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed Yes | 54c | 21.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 53c | 21.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.