Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dd188f3492a6f6409cb94ace002cdefdf8fa96b4e4982da5e60f07cbc2ebcce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 32c | 360.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.73 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 234.45$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 227.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 211$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.66 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 208.63$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 191.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 33c | 169.7$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 161.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 156.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 32c | 116.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 9c | 112.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 102.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf47…9eb9backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 68c | 86.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 33c | 73.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 73.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 79c | 64.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 34c | 60.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 54.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 50.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 45.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 67c | 45.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe453…30b7backed Yes | 34c | 39.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 36c | 38.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 35.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 68c | 35.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 67c | 32.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 33c | 31.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 27.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed No | 69c | 26.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 18.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 63c | 16.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe783…50bbbacked No | 74c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.