Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3772a2a54aebbfd94a8ecc2540bf8c381e22ab73a387ee845e088998e0f8596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97cb…c910backed No | 1c | 4,604$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…a947backed No | 3c | 3,418$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 4c | 1,679$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…a59dbacked No | 4c | 1,359$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…a476backed No | 4c | 1,265$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea9…575fbacked No | 4c | 1,153$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed No | 4c | 1,138$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 3c | 983.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 28c | 470$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcedb…588bbacked No | 4c | 432.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…10a2backed No | 4c | 394.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +415.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 4c | 351.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…cb39backed No | 4c | 307.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…3690backed No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…f7f0backed Yes | 74c | 300$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…3c63backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 15c | 198$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…25d6backed Yes | 71c | 172.13$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed Yes | 77c | 114.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc972…dcd9backed Yes | 78c | 64.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…1d38backed No | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed Yes | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…aabebacked Yes | 62c | 51.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 79c | 42.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 76c | 18.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 77c | 18.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.