AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93faa0240e1ad5a847b8d6bfb998c33ab4d520e4e57568f2cbdbedba02d00c7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Yes | 79c | 5,204$4,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.51 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 2,453$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.77 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,967$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 71c | 1,574$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.33 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 32c | 1,402$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.48 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 23c | 1,128$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.62 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d3f0backed No | 7c | 919.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 900$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…38d5backed Yes | 30c | 762.34$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.02 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 73c | 755.84$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.74 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 732.36$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.93 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 53c | 703.7$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.02 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 18c | 497.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 52c | 475$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +375.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 472.18$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.73 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 3c | 436.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aab…ace2backed No | 5c | 432.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 30c | 415.33$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 70c | 400.3$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 47c | 382$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 360.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 26c | 282.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c40…445cbacked Yes | 33c | 245.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.53 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 29c | 240.31$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.44 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 30c | 234.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.45 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…b6c4backed Yes | 30c | 231$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 19c | 206.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 17c | 202.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 76c | 200$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdc…f830backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…88f2backed Yes | 29c | 166.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 25c | 162.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 146.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 55c | 135.03$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 24c | 127.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 11c | 127$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 17c | 98.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed No | 26c | 97.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 28c | 88.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…9678backed No | 33c | 75.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 31c | 70.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 69.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 70c | 63.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 70c | 61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…eb45backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 73c | 58.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 29c | 58.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 51c | 57.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 23c | 57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 55.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…a05cbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 70c | 49.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes | 25c | 47.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x690e…883bbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…b4ddbacked No | 57c | 32.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 33c | 32.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 66c | 26.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 77c | 26.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…7be3backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8e…2175backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.