AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb1d1626c22c2a7448ac50b00dc120883fcb7edd2fb7255743886fd9bb200ff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 71c | 1,881$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.82 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 30c | 1,600$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 73c | 1,500$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.78 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 9c | 1,450$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.86 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 24c | 889.23$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.13 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 730$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 24c | 575$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 506.16$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 29c | 500$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 72c | 451.52$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.43 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 6c | 390$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 80c | 350$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 30c | 297$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 34c | 168.54$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 76c | 142$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 115.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5844…5bd4backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…a70ebacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 64c | 91.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 19c | 86.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 28c | 81.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 50c | 81.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 20c | 80.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…d3ddbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 61.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 76c | 61.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 76c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…7be3backed Yes | 67c | 41.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb87…eb45backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 77c | 24.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.