AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cabaf08be1954680599a1cc5d3f715558d8880b6bcb819d2e32ca404c400b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 37c | 2,184$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798.96 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 17c | 1,541$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.8 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 1,470$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.5 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 44c | 999.52$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.85 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 53c | 977.78$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 27c | 940.36$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.3 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…d3f0backed No | 8c | 800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 61c | 800$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 16c | 452.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 24c | 375$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 12c | 357$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 68c | 300$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 64c | 280.73$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 63c | 254$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 48c | 242.13$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.59 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 7c | 234.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…c199backed Yes | 64c | 233.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 44c | 220$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 52c | 220$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +375.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 12c | 211.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 57c | 196.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.32 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked No | 30c | 185.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 53c | 183.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…dbeabacked No | 46c | 177.78$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 168.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 160.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 48c | 151.29$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aab…ace2backed No | 50c | 137.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 44c | 126.97$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0664…37aabacked Yes | 80c | 125.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…4d41backed No | 19c | 110.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…3d45backed No | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +820.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 43c | 102.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed Yes | 63c | 102$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9362…d4a4backed No | 80c | 100.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…4a9dbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…1b11backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9882…1d24backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0e…3c0fbacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13eb…a4e6backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…7275backed Yes | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +337.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 32c | 93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 56c | 92.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…1a88backed No | 79c | 91.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…cf4dbacked Yes | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 53c | 82.9$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 64c | 81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac6d…0fcbbacked Yes | 58c | 78.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 64c | 71.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…6cdabacked No | 21c | 63.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked No | 52c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 57.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 62c | 53.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd83f…03b1backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 49.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 46c | 42.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 80c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…6a78backed Yes | 60c | 27.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 63c | 26.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 80c | 22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2317…56c3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…f90bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…9065backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.7wins | -0.42per pick | 61cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.