AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccd3b45fe892dce6bb5336d29a7e5f4a8edc56252b34d093b0bf117cdb9c5f41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,620
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 14c | 1,257$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.71 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 1,178$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.92 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 6c | 1,136$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 10c | 1,012$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.26 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked No | 18c | 863.97$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 19c | 799.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 71c | 782.32$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.88 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 16c | 617.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked No | 12c | 548.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 14c | 530$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac6d…0fcbbacked No | 13c | 506.15$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 15c | 427$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 15c | 400$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 15c | 314.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 12c | 276.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 69c | 260.11$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 65c | 259.44$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.83 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 13c | 228.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 227.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 13c | 222.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 203$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 42cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 24c | 179.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 13c | 169$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 148.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 15c | 134.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 20c | 103.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x529d…6381backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…5a08backed No | 17c | 92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 32c | 77.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 75.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 56.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 75c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…53f1backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.