AI · resolved market
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf479f3e8d1ee87a98a5ef7a8d0e00f55bd5bc6f52b4c02136f3858ddc0010c7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,085
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,085 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 52c | 12,339$6,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,971.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed Yes | 58c | 9,753$5,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.97 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 52c | 9,081$4,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,680.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 42c | 5,683$2,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,370.53 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 5,220$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.94 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,898$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a52…d74cbacked Yes | 65c | 2,762$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.69 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda5…ee3abacked No | 24c | 1,583$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…6cdabacked No | 23c | 1,521$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 58c | 1,300$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.3 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,261$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,129.78 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 1,154$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.18 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662d…15d7backed Yes | 9c | 1,090$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +444.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,053$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.78 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked No | 21c | 920.72$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.35 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 79c | 869.5$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.72 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 803.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.61 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 5c | 574$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.15 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 77c | 549.99$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.54 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 539.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 24c | 524.91$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.37 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816a…846abacked No | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 35c | 439.52$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 289.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.92 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed Yes | 10c | 286.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.48 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…6055backed Yes | 63c | 269.83$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 10c | 250$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.9 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed Yes | 7c | 207.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…3d45backed Yes | 5c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +820.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 10c | 155$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73df…c515backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…865bbacked No | 39c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…01d7backed No | 56c | 111.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8648…8cbcbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +614.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…c545backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +817.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 97.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 70c | 74.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…9678backed No | 22c | 52.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66eb…dc17backed Yes | 27c | 49.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +277.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c1…ab9bbacked Yes | 78c | 15.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.