TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,084
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,084 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes30c2,039$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.787623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No62c810.45$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.4523723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No77c513.41$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4414959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes18c478.34$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.741816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No72c371.23$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.625054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c251.84$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5944138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No74c234.7$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.0221854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c232.75$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.5528558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No71c215.72$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.1613646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes15c209.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0515036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes38c209$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4217952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No75c208.4$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.13743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes30c197$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.584240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes16c196.78$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes27c185.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505341.5%22 W · 31 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No75c183.99$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9227143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc327…d803backed Yes7c178.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.415427.8%15 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No70c175.04$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.565072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes10c159.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.95052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No73c155.57$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.345334%18 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes15c153.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4916934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No75c150$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3840648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No74c142.19$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7727438.3%105 W · 169 L-32.3wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5999…aedfbacked Yes40c136.8$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked No71c136.1$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.111546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c133.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0218035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes32c127.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1139231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked Yes27c125$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.62729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd79…989ebacked Yes30c122.84$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No70c122.45$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8215766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes26c120.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9318342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No70c111.33$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6823551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c108.1$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.723459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes35c100.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-71.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No73c100.87$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4916254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c100.5$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes26c97.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1639952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes27c89.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.511053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6116738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No65c83.14$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1418158%105 W · 76 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c75.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.031,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No74c72.63$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1113155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb00f…3e60backed No76c71$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.812755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x303a…a400backed No77c64.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44ed…21fdbacked No80c62.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No80c62.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.75253.8%28 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No77c61.26$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1534354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes21c61$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7814827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2736055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd92f…acacbacked Yes26c58.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.292433.3%8 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+62.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No69c55.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0316755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes38c55.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.696043.3%26 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes28c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44418.2%8 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No72c51.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.169558.9%56 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No78c50.37$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1616852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.514467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.636960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No72c49.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes28c46.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.991225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-56.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes32c43.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1512055.8%67 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes33c39.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0513357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes31c39.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.33212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd4fc…7a72backed No71c38.08$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.981145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7142…e79ebacked No67c37.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.455100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+110%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.812055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…b105backed No75c34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.363884.2%32 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No72c30.65$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6815954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf057…ab54backed Yes34c30.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.241947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125234.6%18 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe9…56d9backed No71c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No70c28.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7614954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No62c28.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118959.6%53 W · 36 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No77c26.78$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1814445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No72c25.44$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1818662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No71c25.15$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.391747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No73c23.98$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4712040.8%49 W · 71 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+27.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No64c23.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.342263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked No64c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No64c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.928856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x194b…2a11backed No64c21.95$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.841566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.89756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.614351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No71c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.939160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No68c15.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.876847.1%32 W · 36 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x82ce…e92abacked No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.22487.5%21 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick72cpaid+21.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.24841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d70…cc5ebacked No78c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.082572%18 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.