World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3878c1e842857f97383b39cfdbaa8368d8c89ff771ae780f87a623d5a8fbd323
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 63c | 3,160$1,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,635$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.64 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 812.58$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.58 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 49c | 536.54$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.9 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 535.34$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.57 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 420.17$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 49c | 406.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.47 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 385$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.74 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 351.35$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.95 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 38c | 317.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.34 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 44c | 306$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.7 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 44c | 282$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.25 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 42c | 238.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.15 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 210.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 35c | 204.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +494.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 77c | 197.79$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 191.72$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 163.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 162.01$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.05 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 41c | 157.32$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 156.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 19c | 148.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 17c | 140.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 130.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.62 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 122.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 47c | 116.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 113$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 47c | 110$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 46c | 109.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 50c | 109.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 74c | 108.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 15c | 102.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…abfbbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…c536backed No | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 33c | 94.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 42c | 92.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 38c | 85.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 84.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 83.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 80.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 57c | 78.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 60c | 77.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff83…a97dbacked No | 41c | 76.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed Yes | 46c | 76.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 65c | 76.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 59c | 73.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 66c | 72.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 71.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 59c | 69.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 44c | 68.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 79c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 61c | 62.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 61.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 60.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked No | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 53c | 59.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 28c | 55.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 40c | 55.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 45c | 51.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 49c | 51.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 66c | 50.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 51c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 41c | 47.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 47.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 47c | 46.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 30c | 46.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 43c | 46.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 46.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 49c | 45.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 35c | 45.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 44c | 45.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 29c | 44.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 50c | 43.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 42.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 41.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 25c | 41.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 41.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 68c | 40.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac67…e084backed Yes | 75c | 40.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 72c | 40.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 39.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 38.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 68c | 37.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 55c | 37.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 66c | 37.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 35.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 55c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…9837backed Yes | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 37cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.