World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9185688f62525df4a1d09b11a985b9faafd2818cdd399012ed581fd1c031b7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,484$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.04 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 17c | 1,070$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 18c | 525.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 31c | 523.89$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.38 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +494.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 15c | 350.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 21c | 304.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 24c | 299.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 285.56$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 269.52$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 22c | 249.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Yes | 21c | 235.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 12c | 224.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 213.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 24c | 199$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 196.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 195.31$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 78c | 174.62$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 66c | 171.53$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 7c | 167$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 8c | 153.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 9c | 152.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 140.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 24c | 133.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 131.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…b1febacked No | 76c | 130.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed No | 75c | 129.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 127.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 11c | 116.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 18c | 110.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 23c | 104.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 22c | 100.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c30…0ac6backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec9f…e57bbacked Yes | 21c | 98.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 13c | 95.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 93.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 18c | 87.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 13c | 79.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 15c | 76.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 13c | 74.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…c01fbacked Yes | 16c | 73.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 36c | 72.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…2786backed Yes | 38c | 70.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 62c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 63c | 68.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 76c | 62.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 61.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 17c | 60.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 62c | 58.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 24c | 53.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 80c | 53.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 23c | 48.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 33c | 44.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 66c | 39.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 31c | 37.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 36.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 35.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 34.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 34.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 63c | 33.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 37c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 32.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 35c | 31.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 78c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 64c | 25.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 64c | 24.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 65c | 23.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 75c | 17.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 80c | 15.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x274a…2246backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…a8febacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 69c | 14.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.