Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bc42348842cd3a21310fe9d60dcf86c69a5436d7abe323f7abf59085228c582
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 73c | 1,350$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc4…7760backed Yes | 25c | 1,095$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 69c | 1,000$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.32 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…9662backed Yes | 32c | 920.77$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 899.9$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.47 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 14c | 836.33$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.47 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 30c | 257.18$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…13cfbacked Yes | 30c | 198.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 35c | 187.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 178.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 30c | 150.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 149$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed Yes | 14c | 147.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 136.16$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 114.65$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…1bb8backed Yes | 40c | 111.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 68c | 100.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 34c | 87.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 85.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed Yes | 36c | 80.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 27c | 76.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 33c | 67.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ee…a2e3backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 34c | 53.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 77c | 50.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 72c | 46.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 70c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9129…dd8ebacked Yes | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…3c76backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked Yes | 31c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc3…2c1cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 68c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 25.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…9441backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…bdaebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2abc…5754backed No | 68c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 76c | 17.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…0334backed No | 68c | 14.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…5f8dbacked No | 77c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf451…5df0backed No | 77c | 13.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?this page
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.8M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.2M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?Yes won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.6M and 7.7M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.7M and 7.8M in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.