Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6a647c949a99aa1a7136a6d86b8ce7d43866e43a494caf27eb9886ac6302393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x731a…033fbacked Yes | 64c | 2,000$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 63c | 934.63$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 4c | 793.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 19c | 397.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.03 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 37c | 268.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.31 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x475f…17bcbacked Yes | 15c | 240$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 19c | 230.1$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.61 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.6 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…1392backed Yes | 18c | 113.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 16cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 100.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 37c | 64.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.3M and 7.4M in June?this page
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.8M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be below 7.2M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.2M and 7.3M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.5M and 7.6M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.6M and 7.7M in June?No won
- Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.7M and 7.8M in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.