Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd450e0657975b73d5c7bc22d27bf4249ad4ba065ac3ae19373b0c72f40b8af68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,538$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.85 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 27c | 4,129$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.67 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 8c | 3,177$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.09 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 9c | 1,740$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 1,280$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.02 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 949.67$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 779.51$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.23 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 11c | 520$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 451.89$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.47 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 36c | 420$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…206ebacked Yes | 15c | 254.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 21c | 241.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 78c | 233.1$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 204.54$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 128.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 69c | 127.41$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 19c | 123.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 110.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 107.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 101.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 20c | 71.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 68c | 71.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 66.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 36c | 65.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 63.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…4451backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5568…9ea3backed Yes | 36c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dac…423abacked Yes | 32c | 46.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 71c | 36.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62a…a8ffbacked No | 77c | 36.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed No | 80c | 35.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 26.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 76c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 64c | 20.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39f…c5f5backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb5…c246backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…4304backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 78c | 16.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked No | 70c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?this page
- Will Brent Hennrich earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?No won
- Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?Yes won
- Will John P. Roco earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?No won
- Will John Saulie-Rohman earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?No won
- Will Lawrence Kellogg earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?No won
- Will Troy Rasband earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.