World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50e83418aadbf4c0435e89224a96c2aaa79453696ff306187f3784faac2bee42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 1,863$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.64 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 735.22$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.11 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 595.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 571.94$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.43 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 37c | 552.42$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.93 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 529.2$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 513.62$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.1 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 488.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 12c | 402.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 377.66$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…3c86backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 66c | 273.9$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 19c | 259.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 63c | 254$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 240.47$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 23c | 236.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 5c | 207.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 207.57$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 36c | 193.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 37c | 188.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.43 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 177.65$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 176.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 66c | 175.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 25c | 163.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 158$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 157.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 151.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 8c | 149.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 148.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 72c | 144.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 144.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 131.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 131$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 130$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 127.3$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 121.1$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 112.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 28c | 100.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…a0a6backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd192…d266backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 37c | 99.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 89.9$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 63c | 86.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 76c | 84.13$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 80.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 80.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a5…9156backed Yes | 38c | 79.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 73.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 70.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 74c | 69.67$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 69.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 68.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 63c | 65.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b62…042fbacked No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 63.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 59.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 32c | 58.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 36c | 58.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 28c | 54.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 51.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 79cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked No | 64c | 49.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 49.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 35c | 49.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 75c | 45.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 41.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 38.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 37.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 36.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 72c | 35.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 67c | 35.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3114…eaaabacked Yes | 36c | 34.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 63c | 33.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 62c | 32.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 38c | 30.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 30.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 64c | 30.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.