TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,659
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,659 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes26c1,059$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2747623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes8c701$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4923723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes28c649.83$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.944138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes29c453.39$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.62728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-40.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes11c446.48$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5332748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes11c391.12$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.941546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No78c362.69$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5915036.7%55 W · 95 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes34c314.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.152240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes5c286.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.58825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes17c275.66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.245317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes13c260.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5214842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes15c258.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.876224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes10c215.68$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.277517.3%13 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes12c187.72$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.258844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes13c186.81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.897353.4%39 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes17c186.74$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No69c177.25$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.775072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No76c174.78$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes9c170.72$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0824637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes23c157.65$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.822857.1%16 W · 12 L+6.8wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+106.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes15c152.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4518342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.686448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.931776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc17…886abacked No68c143$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.773100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes18c141.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.253225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No66c138.27$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.613357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c128.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3244428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes19c128.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.347030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes25c126.72$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.678038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes17c125.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.523212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes8c124.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5223044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes24c119.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.84146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No72c104.77$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.193366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes28c101.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.265547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+354.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes30c99.39$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid+179.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes17c95.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.471822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No79c90$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.618762.6%117 W · 70 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes30c89.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4713646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes38c88.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.853240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c86.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.518035.6%64 W · 116 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No65c84.1$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1413155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes19c79.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes19c75.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6322111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No75c75.54$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0116254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes17c75.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.843030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes32c75$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9216738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes33c72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes21c71.81$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.312640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes18c69.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5514351.7%74 W · 69 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed No53c68.26$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.413240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3f7…c14bbacked No76c66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.01771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes28c64.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0732354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes23c64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes25c63.75$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.085913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No74c61.57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.014355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No73c56.64$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.415383%44 W · 9 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes30c55.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6212238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes30c50.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153531.4%11 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.31687.5%14 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick79cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes52c48.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes26c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.261747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf846…cb9fbacked Yes31c46.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes31c44.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0114827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x267d…ed00backed Yes34c44.7$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick49cpaid-73.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0eaf…1f76backed Yes45c44.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x758b…6479backed No69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c43.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4832639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47e8…94f5backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.972454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1218638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No67c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.546944.9%31 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No70c35.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.713171%22 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No78c34.46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.533174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0db1…6272backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.615766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.510864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No67c29.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.951855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x422a…dc4bbacked No70c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.453158.1%18 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7903…57f6backed No74c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.426100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No78c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.165881%47 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick76cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No70c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8638…cc30backed Yes50c27.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No79c27.68$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.688865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No74c25.94$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8321844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadda…684cbacked No79c25.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.24757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick71cpaid+10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f3…92d6backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick57cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.514467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e3e…c58bbacked No78c16.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No78c13.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.0815558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.