World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7a32fa950143c96c3b9fa8e34cd10ed33c0571136b727ff27b3ea57fe3a9614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbec…808bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,595$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.4 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 1,040$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.34 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 911.9$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.24 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 666.11$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.09 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 27c | 659.88$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.71 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 560.08$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.58 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 549.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.23 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 54c | 520.25$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 518.09$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.92 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 54c | 447.94$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.24 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 45c | 432.7$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.06 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 10c | 413.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 43c | 401.01$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.05 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes | 30c | 351.25$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 61c | 323.73$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.99 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 301.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…b1febacked No | 73c | 258.4$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 250.46$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 248.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 232$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed No | 43c | 227.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 69c | 226.67$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 218.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 35c | 200.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 193.29$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 186.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.46 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 181$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 79c | 173.58$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 49c | 154.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 150.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 47c | 150$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 45c | 135.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.16 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 73c | 134.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -27%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 133.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 62c | 132.28$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 21c | 126.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 126.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 58c | 125.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 29c | 123.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 64c | 122.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b5…5d04backed No | 79c | 119.44$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 22c | 113.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 54c | 112.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 68c | 109.36$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 43c | 107$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 30c | 105$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 23c | 104.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 102$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.46 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 12c | 100.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…e520backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed Yes | 52c | 99.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 60c | 98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 40c | 97.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 73c | 95.42$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed No | 59c | 93.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 84.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 80.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 79.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 78.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 78c | 77.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…d3d6backed Yes | 70c | 77.64$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…3447backed Yes | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 34c | 70.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 22c | 70.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 69.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 33c | 66.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.47 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 28c | 66.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 47c | 63.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdd…2132backed Yes | 19c | 63.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 39c | 62.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 20c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 58.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 54c | 54.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 59c | 49.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…ed00backed Yes | 65c | 49.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 78c | 49.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917c…6b38backed Yes | 55c | 48.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…c68abacked No | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…5f5abacked Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 46.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 59c | 46.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 73c | 44.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.