TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,414
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,310

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,414 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes11c779.08$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.4432748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c618.67$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.4923551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No70c602.78$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.7614959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes11c533.53$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.3644138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes34c441.8$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.1140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes23c406.98$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.7823723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No20c336.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0521854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes9c329.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.561163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+117.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes29c325$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.082240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbec…808bbacked Yes11c291.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.027623.7%18 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No64c277.57$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.985054%27 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes53c272.77$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.744951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No63c264$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4728558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked Yes29c260.91$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.456731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No15c256.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5226632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c232.39$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.425916.9%10 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c217.8$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5452850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd6b…477dbacked Yes11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+72.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes6c200$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+354.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b42…ba1abacked Yes72c199.98$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.32454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes9c179.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.028844.3%39 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes21c166.82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.224129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3f7…c14bbacked No78c164.89$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.21771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No24c164.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.73212.5%4 W · 28 L-5.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x417f…d9a9backed Yes74c162.31$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.315052%26 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes24c157.51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.49825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No79c155.65$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.513357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd92f…acacbacked Yes10c142.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.572433.3%8 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+62.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f76…bcccbacked No73c137.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No69c132.77$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2121844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4b…8176backed No61c130.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No45c129.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.012075%15 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+22.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No72c128$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No71c122.93$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.917741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes73c118.21$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.345170.6%36 W · 15 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No23c117.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes25c116.8$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.893030%9 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No57c109.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4716852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No15c100.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0618348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes17c100.26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.711822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2411045.5%50 W · 60 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes78c99.66$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.16448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes80c93$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192075%15 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes46c91.5$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0823044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No59c90.24$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.616450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No53c89.89$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.814954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No29c82.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.744652.2%24 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbb38…467cbacked Yes79c79.58$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.46425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-68.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes27c78.12$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.245317%9 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae33…7804backed No78c75.76$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c1…b2eebacked Yes26c73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.08825%2 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes49c71.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.483240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes50c71.34$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.815547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c71.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.144428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xca96…7125backed Yes77c70.8$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed No31c69.29$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4622111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05f…0003backed Yes38c69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.555248.1%25 W · 27 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes75c66.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.332035%7 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No39c64.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.716254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b9e…0948backed Yes19c62.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.71816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No39c62.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.424355.8%24 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes22c60$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.83046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No42c58.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2616850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes21c57.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.63225%8 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked No76c52.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.521747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked No28c51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3212640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c98…f6a0backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.975837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No80c48.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.524645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes32c48.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.644146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b62…042fbacked No77c45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.74666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes69c44.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.04650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No50c42.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.113155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed No33c38.55$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.546330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…ba60backed No72c38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No56c37.85$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.34852.1%25 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4e…5ac9backed No80c37.52$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.994763.8%30 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No73c37.16$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2816051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes54c35.58$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.222454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes53c35.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.612128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d2…e95cbacked Yes80c31.26$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick71cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0eaf…1f76backed Yes65c30.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-48.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes59c30.77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-71.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0253…bcadbacked Yes54c30.08$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d3e…68a4backed Yes73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick73cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No69c29.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691861.1%11 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No45c26.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.963174.2%23 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No61c25.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4715056.7%85 W · 65 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc97e…09abbacked No55c25.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No71c21.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.197951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x532b…ccccbacked Yes76c21.45$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-78.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x048e…233fbacked Yes73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.48875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6d…4abebacked No73c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes70c19.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.926333.3%21 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes74c18.8$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes63c16.37$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0815954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No79c15.16$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.97666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d41…f085backed No76c13.62$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.33366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b38…52c8backed No79c13.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.