Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia target Kyiv by July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd4935bb0d8531f719d3b8e8c6b7f0bebef57c7e81439c3dcac93268404c57e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,095$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 1c | 2,018$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 38c | 733.11$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.01 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 4c | 385.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3111…a8f8backed Yes | 58c | 320.76$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 5c | 260$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 5c | 225$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 43c | 144.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…d246backed Yes | 37c | 134.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…b702backed Yes | 56c | 132.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked No | 33c | 99.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc961…db04backed Yes | 69c | 88.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked No | 42c | 57.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 59c | 52.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa6…2663backed No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -64%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 43c | 32.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffee…ea6bbacked No | 43c | 29.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Yes | 49c | 27.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…d2d9backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a9…d021backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4966backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 56c | 19.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia target Kyiv by July 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia target Kyiv by August 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.