Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5be9be92daaa1281a1e8cebe9b4e6235ceccbf4e2be71420bafb5c1699ed285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 48c | 400$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.07 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 49c | 258.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 30c | 255.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.57 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 249.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 42c | 229.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 28c | 226.07$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 55c | 206.16$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 182.2$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 59c | 170.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 161.38$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 155.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 149.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.35 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 109.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e1…ac51backed Yes | 53c | 105.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 52c | 83.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 48c | 79.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 78.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 52c | 76.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 73.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 72.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 68.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 68.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 53.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 39c | 52.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb1…4897backed Yes | 79c | 51.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 47.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 38c | 47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 60c | 46.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 45.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 69c | 42.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 28c | 41.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 36.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 36.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed No | 54c | 34.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1519…6f14backed No | 61c | 30.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 52c | 27.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 45c | 24.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 78c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 54c | 20.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 60c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.